The study investigated the future of Africa’s fish sector by employing two scenarios: business-as-usual (BAU) and high capture fisheries and aquaculture with stronger GDP growth (HIGH). The methods carried out in the study are summarized as below:
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Projected future fish supply and demand in Africa to 2050 by utilizing the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agriculture Commodities and Trade (IMPACT). Picture as illustrated below.
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Performed post-model analysis to extrapolate future potential direct (capture fisheries and aquaculture) and indirect employment that would be associated with the BAU and HIGH scenarios.
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Estimated future aquaculture production value and investment costs required to achieve BAU and HIGH scenarios.
In sum, under the BAU and HIGH scenarios the projection of future fish supply and demand results reveal that the fish sector is crucial for substantial employment creation and the investment will tremendously help boost the growth of fish supplies in Africa. A more elaborated report of the projection results will be provided in the next article entitled “Fish to 2050 in Africa: Employment and Investment”.
Reference:
Chan, Tran, N., Cheong, K. C., Sulser, T. B., Cohen, P. J., Wiebe, K., & Nasr-Allah, A. M. (2021). The future of fish in Africa: Employment and investment opportunities. PloS One, 16(12), e0261615–e0261615. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0261615
